A REASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) AND ITS PRESUMED EFFECTS ON ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE

A REASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) AND ITS PRESUMED EFFECTS ON ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE

                                                                                    Edward A. Boudreaux, PhD
ABSTRACT
It is shown in this paper that anthropogenic (man-made) carbon dioxide (CO2) does not produce any excess CO2 in the atmosphere and therefore cannot be responsible for global warming. This has become a political issue extending far beyond the realm of all reality and scientific validity. In fact, experts have shown that not only is it impossible for CO2 to be a factor in producing the so called atmospheric “green house” effect, but the atmospheric “green house” effect itself is a physical impossibility. In this work no account has been taken for CO2 produced by burning coal or fossil fuels from commercial production plants. These latter sources are difficult to accurately access, so the data provided can only be rough estimates, which for the most part are purposely blown up out of proportion. It is also notable that since the present work grossly overestimates the numbers of motor vehicles in the world producing CO2, this alone more than compensates for omission of CO2 produced from burning coal and commercial fossil fuels.
In conclusion, rather than atmospheric CO2 increasing, there is actually is at least 11.5 trillion kilograms more CO2 released from the atmosphere as compared to the amount absorbed.
 

INTRODUCTION
The atmosphere is divided into four specific regions as depicted in the following chart:
CHART 1
Regions of the Atmosphere
Designated Regions Altitude (kilometers)
Troposphere 0-11
Stratosphere 11-50
Mesosphere 50-80
Thermosphere 80-120
 

All of the chemical composition is determined within 25km (15.5 miles) from the earth’s surface. This means that only the Troposphere and one half of the Stratosphere are described by a stable chemical composition. But each of these regions is subject to very irregular temperature variations. In the Troposphere the average temperature varies linearly from about 20 C⁰ (degrees Celsius) or 77 F⁰ (degrees Fahrenheit) to -60 C⁰ (-76 F⁰) at an 11 km altitude, while in the Stratosphere the average temperature varies non-linearly: it is constant at -60C⁰ from 11 to about 20 km altitude; increases non-linearly from -60 C⁰ at 20 km to about 0 C⁰ at 50 km. Within the other upper regions there are further linear decreases and non-linear increases in temperature ranging from about -90C⁰ to 80 C⁰. If we were to focus consideration to only the Troposphere, which is where the major fraction of “global warming” would be restricted, the average temperature is about -20 C⁰. Even if the atmospheric temperature were measured to increase globally by as much as 0.5 to even 1.0C⁰ (which it has not), these measurements would be confined to the Troposphere, for which the temperature would still be in the range of -19.5 to -19 C⁰. This is a minimal effect relative to that induced by sun spot activity, which influences the temperature profile of the entire atmosphere.
The fact of the matter is that any attempts to determine factors affecting atmospheric temperature, require an assessment of the complex dynamical properties of the fluid gases which it contains. There are three physical mechanisms by which heat is transferred: 1) Conduction-in which heat is transferred by absorption into a substance; 2) Convection-heat transferred in terms of the kinetic energy due to the motion and friction between involved substance; 3) Radiation-heat transferred by reflection from the surface of a substance. Hence, any meaningful representation of heat transfer in the atmosphere requires a system of complex fluid equations which adequately account for all three mechanisms of heat transfer operating simultaneously. However, such a system of equations is impossible to solve unless significant approximations are made. It is not a matter of computer power but is rather due to physical complexity of the system being studied. None the less, approximations to equations and models of global warming are still made and the results are believed, even though these results are totally unreliable. Furthermore, the global warming advocates maintain that only the radiational (i.e. “green house effect”) component of heat transfer is operative in global warming. This approximation is so limiting that it is totally worthless. Furthermore, G. Gerlich and R. D. Tscheuschder (International Journal of Modern Physics B, vol.23, 2009, pp. 275-364) have shown that there is no atmospheric “green house” effect and global warming due to CO2 has not occurred.
The problems are further exacerbated by the fact that fluctuations in the temperature of the atmosphere naturally occur and seem to be closely related to the sun’s activity. But there is no way to reliably predict what the cycles of the sun’s activity will be from one time to another.
All of the global warming hype is attributed to anthropogenic (man- made) release of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. The reflective properties of CO2 in the infrared region of the electromagnetic spectrum radiate heat from the atmosphere back to the earth’s surface. Thus the entire scenario is completely dependent upon increased CO2 being retained by the atmosphere. It is the purpose of this analysis to arrive at a reasonable estimates as to how much CO2 is actually being released to the environment.
 

REVIEW OF PERTINENT DATA
The major chemical components present within the space of a 25km altitude of the atmosphere are presented in Table 1

Table 1
Principal Composition of the Earth’s Atmosphere*
Component % by Volume % by Mass
N2 (nitrogen) 78.09 75.52
O2 (oxygen) 20.95 23.15
Ar (argon) 0.93 1.28
CO2 0.03 0.05
*These data are taken from S. P. Hardy, “Climate Change, Causes, Effects and Solutions”, 2003, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, West Sussex, England.

The data presented in Table 1 differ from that provided thru other sources based upon more recent measurements. Some sources provide numerical data to one part in 100,000,000 because the equipment utilized have accuracy to that degree. But this does not reflect the reliability of the data, because fluctuations in the composition of the atmosphere readily occur within one part in 100,000. Thus any data implying greater accuracy than within these restrictive limits are not meaningful. For example, consider the number 0.031556 percent for CO2 reported in Table 2. The value of this number is 0.00031556 which has five significant figures; however, because of the small amount of CO2 which fluctuates continuously within a cycle, the actual value is no more reliable than about two significant figures in which the actual value is reduced to 0.00031(6) or 0.00032. This is why the data reported in Table 1 are more realistic and are accepted for this work. It is maintained by global warming advocates that CO2 concentrations have been increasing in the atmosphere over the past century and that the most reliable measurements have been obtained within the last 49 year period. These data are provided in Table 2

Table 2
Reported Atmospheric CO2 for a 49 Year Interval*
Year % CO2 by Volume (Reported) % CO2 by Volume (Realistic) 1958 0.031556 0.032
1967 0.032288 0.032
1977 0.033453 0.033
1987 0.034924 0.035
1996 0.036399 0.036
2007 0.03773  0.038
*Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii 

As can be readily seen in Table 2 from 1958 to 1967 there is virtually no change in CO2 levels. From 1967 to 1977 there is only an increase of 1 part in 100,000, but from 1977 to 2007 there is a very curious, regular increase of some 0.002-0.001 per cent over the span of 30 years (1977 to 2007). This is a highly suspicious result, for even if CO2 levels are truly increasing, it is most unlikely that the measured increases would follow a regular pattern of precisely 0.002-0.001 per cent per measurement interval. Based on the characteristic dynamics of the atmosphere such regularity is not to be realistically anticipated. Furthermore, all measurements taken at one location are hardly representative of the distribution of CO2 over the entire Troposphere.
The standard CO2 flux within its regular cycle is presented in Table 3 below. Pay particular attention to the highlighted portion of the data for fossil fuel burning, which is the questionable portion of the entire process

Table 3
Proposed CO2 Flux Into and Out of the Atmosphere in Units of 1012kg of Carbon per Year
(1012 kg CO2 per Year)
Flux IN Flux Out
Respiration & Organic Decay = 122.0 (447.7) Photosynthesis = 124.7 (457.6)
Ocean Degassing = 105.0 (385.4) Ocean Absorption = 107.0 (392.7)
Fossil Fuel Burning = 5.3 (19.5) -----
CO Oxidation (?) = 1.5 (5.5) -----
TOTALS = 233.8 (858.1) = 231.7 (850.3)
Flux IN – Flux Out = 233.8 – 231.7 = 2.1 kg Carbon
= 858.1 – 850.3 = 7.8 kg CO2

Based on the data in Table 3, there is 2.1 more kg carbon, or 7.8 kg CO2, going into the atmosphere than what is coming out of it. Note that the data provided for fossil fuel burning is highlighted, because the suspicion is that this is grossly inflated. Also, CO is presented as a separate contribution, but all fossil fuel burning produces CO initially, which is subsequently oxidized by the atmospheric oxygen to CO2. Thus it is confusing to separate CO from fossil fuel. If we are to accept all of the anthropogenic CO2 production entering the atmosphere, then the fossil fuel plus CO data should be combined to read 25.0 x1012 kg CO2 per year.
 

 REANALYSIS
A reasonable reanalysis must focus on a realistic assessment of fossil fuel CO2 production from private motor vehicles, commercial trucks and commercial air craft as the major sources. 

Private Motor Vehicles
The current world population is about 6.8x109 people. Let it be presumed that 70% of all people in the world drive motor vehicles. Of course this is a gross overestimate, but it will be accepted anyway so as not to bias the results against any increase in CO2 production. Thus there will be 4.8x109 motor vehicles burning gasoline. Presuming that an average 10,000 gallons of gasoline per vehicle are burned per year, thus (4.8x109) x (10,000 gal/yr) = 4.8x1013 gal/yr or (4.8x1013gal/yr) x (3.785 liters/gal) x (10-3m3/liter) = 1.85x1011m3 gasoline burned annually. The average density of gasoline is 0.74 kg/m3, so 1.85x1011m3 x 0,74 kg/m3 = 1.37x1011 kg gasoline burned per year.
Octane, C8H18, is the principle component of gasoline which on the average accounts for 90% of the chemical composition of gasoline. Thus the burning of octane is by far the major factor involved, for which the chemical equation is given: C8H18 + 12.5 O2 + heat → 8 CO2 + 9 H2O (1)
Equation (1) describes the chemical molar amounts of each constituent. The mole mass of C8H18 = 0.114 kg/mole, so [1.37x1011 kg x 0.90 (octane)] / (0.114 kg/mole) = 1.08x1012 moles octane. Since according to equation (1) 8 moles of CO2 are produced for every mole of C8H18 burned, 8 x 1.08x1012 moles = 8.64x1012 moles CO2 produced. The mole mass of CO2 = 0.044 kg/mole and 8.64x1012 moles x (0.044 kg/mole) = 3.80x1011 kg CO2 produced per year. However, this presumes that the combustion (burning) process is 100% efficient, which it never is in any engine; but, so as not to bias the results in favor of lower CO2 production, the 100% efficiency will be accepted.
Consequently, the maximum world-wide CO2 production from privately owned motor vehicles is 3.80x1011kg/yr at the very most.
 

 

Commercial Trucks
If it is presumed that 40% of all the motor vehicles in the world are commercial trucks (an obviously highly inflated estimate), then 0.40 x 4.8x109 = 1.9x109 commercial trucks burning fuel. The diesel fuel burned by nearly all commercial trucks is a hydrocarbon mixture of predominantly C10 to C16 hydrocarbons, plus some smaller amounts of aromatic hydrocarbons. It will be sufficient to consider the burning of only the C10H22 and the C16H34 components of the fuel, which are described by the following chemical equations:
C10H22 + 15.5 O2 + heat → 10 CO2 + 11 H2O (2)
C16H34 + 24.5 O2 +heat → 16 CO2 + 17 H2O (3)
 

It is reasonable to maintain that each truck burns 100 gallons of fuel per day = 36,500 gal/yr, so the total fuel burned by all commercial trucks is 1.9x109 x 36,500 gal/yr = 6.9x1013gal/yr = 2.7x1014 liters/yr = 2.7x1011m3/yr. The average density of diesel fuel is 0.80 kg/m3, so 2.7x1013m3/yr x 0.80 kg/m3 = 2.2x1012 kg/yr fuel burned.
From equation (2) 1 mole of C10H22 burned produces 10 moles CO2. The mole mass of C10H22 is 0.142 kg/mole, thus (2.2x1012 kg/yr)/ (0.142kr/mole) = 1.55x1013 moles/yr C10H22 burned, which produces 10 x 1.55x1013 = 1.55 x1014 moles CO2 per year and provides (1.55x1014moles/yr) x 0.044 kg/mole = 6.8x1012 kg of CO2 per year. Similarly, from equation (3), 1mole C16H34 produces 16 moles of CO2. The mole mass of C16H34 is 0.276 kg/mole and (2.2x1012 kg/yr) / (0.276 kg/mole) = 8.0x1012 moles C16H34 burned per year. According to equation (3) one mole C16H34 produces 16 moles CO2, thus 16 x 8.0x1012moles = 12.8x1013 moles CO2 per year, or 12.8x1013 moles x 0.044 kg/mole = 5.6x1012 kg of CO2 per year. Taking the average for both of these extreme limits of hydrocarbons burned ½(6.8x1012 + 5.6x1012) kg = 6.2x1012 kg CO2 produced per year. Thus the maximum amount of CO2 produced by commercial trucks cannot exceed 6.2x1012 kg/yr.

 

Commercial Airliners

It is reported that about 2% of the total fossil fuel production of CO2 is due to burning of air craft jet fuel (www. globalist.com/raw materials/syndication/smple2.hotm). Using the data from Table 3 as modified, the total CO2 produced from fossil fuels is 25.0x1012kg/yr, so the amount attributed to commercial aircraft would be 0.02 x 25x1012 kg/yr = 5.0x1011 kg/yr. Thus (25x1012 – 5.0x1011) kg/yr = 2.45x1013 kg/yr would be the CO2 production due to all motor vehicles. Thus the ratio of CO2 production from air craft vs. all motor vehicles would be (5.0x1011kg/yr)/ (2.45x1013kg/yr) = 0.0204.
Using this factor together with the data provided above, yields (3.8x1011 + 6.2x1012) kg/yr = 10.0x1012 kg/yr CO2 due to all motor vehicles, with 0.0204 x 10.0x1012 kg/yr = 2.0x1011 kg/yr CO2 due to commercial aircraft. Adding all contributions to CO2 production from burning fossil fuels we get:
Privately owned motor vehicles = 3.8x1011 kg/yr
Commercial trucks = 6.2x1012kg/yr
Commercial aircraft = 2.0x1011 kg/yr
Total = 12.0x1012 kg/yr
which amount is 1.3x1013 less than the 2.5x1013 kg/yr provided in Table 3, even though the information applied in arriving at this result was grossly exaggerated in favor of enhanced CO2 production.
 

 

CONCLUSION
Using the data from Table 3 with the fossil fuel and CO values replaced by the newly derived value 5.7x1012 kg/yr from all fossil fuels, the flux relations become:
C O2 Flux Into Atmosphere (1012kg/yr) CO2 Flux Out Of Atmosphere(1012kg/yr)
Respiration & organic decay = 447.7 Photosynthesis = 457.6
Ocean degassing = 385.4 Ocean absorption = 392.7
Fossil fuel burning = 12.0 -----
Total Flux In = (447.7 + 385.4 +12.0) x1012 kg/yr = 845.1 x1012 kg/yr
Total Flux Out = (457.6 + 392.7) x1012 kg/yr = 850.3 x1012 kg.yr Flux IN – Flux Out = (845.1 – 850.3) x1012 kg/yr = - 5.2 x 1012 kg/yr CO2.
 

In other words, based on these calculations, there is 5.2 x 1012 kg/yr more CO2 coming out of the atmosphere than there is entering into the atmosphere. However, in reality 12x1012kg/yr of CO2 computed is in actuality much less than this, since the sources were all grossly exaggerated. Consequently, GLOBAL WARMING DUE TO CO2 IS NON-EXISTENT. The work reported by Gerlock and Tscheuschder in the introduction of this report is fully vindicated, so not only is there no atmospheric “green house” effect, but there is NO EXCESS CO2 entering into the atmosphere. Thus, all the claims made in support of CO2 emissions causing global warming are LIES.